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Australian labour force data to September 2021

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  Australian labour force trend to 80% vaccinated The Australian labour force experienced a historic shock with the arrival of Covid on the shores of the country, and the subsequent closure of several industries, around March 2020. Covid-19 vaccines began to roll out 12 months later in several countries, but Australia's vaccine drive did not accelerate until mid-2021. Until this time, Australia had been successful in keeping the country almost Covid-free. Employment had also bounced back to such an extent, that the unemployment rate was at a historic low of 4.6%. However, this was partly due to a slight reduction of labour force participation. The sudden arrival of the Delta variant in NSW meant a new quarantining, and closure of industries (July 2021). Victoria likewise experienced a second lockdown, and industry closures. Thus, the slight spike in unemployment, and a more dramatic reduction of workforce participation in Aug-Sept of 2021.  Labour force data is a lagging indicator

Covid vaccine progress in Oz October

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Stretch your legs, spread your wings Australia’s Covid-19 vaccination response was slow to start but accelerated to be one of the fastest vaccination programs in the world. It may also become one of the highest over the next few months, as 90% of adults have had a first dose in NSW for example.  At the beginning of October Australia reached 44% of the whole population vaccinated, which translates to the more commonly cited 55% of adults vaccinated. By mid October, the adult vaccination number reached 65% of adults. The Federal government has indicated that extensive relaxation of lockdown would end with 70% of adults vaccinated (56% on the chart) and international travel restrictions would ease at 80% (65% on the chart). The state of NSW has already passed the 70% adult figure, and is gunning for 80% within days.  Victoria is close behind.  It would currently take until December for Australia to reach the equivalent of the Chilean vaccination level, where more than 90% of adults are va

A tale of two cities

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  Economies with and without Covid: NSW vs. WA Covid-19 struck the Australian economy from March 2020, causing a historic economic downturn. Unemployment rose sharply, participation in the workforce reduced.  Australian employment made a partial recovery after mid 2020, following a successful isolation from the Covid pandemic. This is reflected in the rebound up of participation, and down of unemployment.  Since July this year however the Covid virus (Delta variant) has settled itself in both NSW and Victoria. Policy makers accepted that it was here to stay.  Meanwhile, a fast vaccination effort was underway. This should see 80% of adults vaccinated by November 2021.  The national unemployment rate continues on a downward path, reaching 4.5 percent at end August. But this number alone paints a misleading picture. Employment in NSW has dropped since July, due to Covid quarantining. Meanwhile, WA, which has had a booming export sector, and almost zero Covid, has rising employment, rising

Australian Covid vaccination crosses 300k jabs per day in August

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 Vaccination and Covid going gangbusters... A ustralia's Covid-19 vaccination effort is going gangbusters. More than 300k persons per day were being vaccinated in the final week of August. One-third of adults are double vacc'd. This achievement pushes forward the projection for economic opening.   Covid cases also started accelerating recently in New South Wales, the state with one-third of Australia's population. Covid new cases rose daily, alongside vaccinations, hitting 1000 in the last days of August. Lockdown has been the result, and only particular target vaccination levels will remove some of these restrictions. If 70% of the Australian adult population is vaccinated, then national flying will be more or less unrestricted, among other benefits. An 80% adult vaccination level would mean international borders open, with foreign students also being able to enter, with a consequent impact on economic activity and prices. 80% signals that a small number of deaths from Cov

Australian labour force employment changes in 14 months to July 2021

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  Australian labour force changes in the Covid-age A u stralian employment to July 2021 was affected by the tumultuous Covid-19 pandemic, which started its economic impact in March 2020. A comparison with February of that year, 17 months earlier, shows total employment is up by nearly 100,000 persons, distributed between full-time and part-time employment. The increase, although welcome, is far smaller than a typical year prior to Covid-19, when the labour force increased by 250,000 per year (largely due to inbound migration).  Unemployment reduced by 128,000. This reduction involved some people entering employment, and some people leaving the workforce (33,000 people). This is shown in the chart. It is not clear if those people permanently left the workforce, or if some of them will return. The total civilian population increased by about 110,000 people. This increase is despite that immigration stopped dead from March 2020, when many working visa holders also left the country. So the

Australian Covid-19 vaccine rollout is accelerating and case numbers too

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  Everything is accelerating Australia’s vaccination for Covid-19 is accelerating and so are Covid cases in New South Wales, with Australia's largest state population.  Australia was slow to begin Covid vaccinations, by first world standards. Israel started in January of 2020. Now Australia is playing catch-up. This process has become urgent, as Australia's zero cases policy was punctured by a breakout of cases in NSW in July. Case numbers in mid-August in NSW have exceeded 400 a day, and still show no signs of slowing.  Daily average full vaccinations in Australia exceeded 0.4% of the population in mid August. In other words, every two days, almost one more percent of the total population is fully vaccinated against the virus. At this rate, the country will reach its target of exceeding 65% of the total population being vaccinated by mid November. This is roughly equivalent to 80% of the adult population, a key benchmark. At that point, lockdowns and most restriction should ea

Australia is a nation with a strong cultural focus on sports and athletic achievement. Did Tokyo Olympics 2020 justify the view?

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  San Marino be like ... Australia had one of the highest medal counts in the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, placing the country 6th in Gold, just behind Russia. The total medal count for Australia, of 46, included 17 Gold, 7 Silver and 22 Bronze. But, for a population of around 25 million, is Australia punching above its weight? Yes, but less than some others.  San Marino, a country or land mass, with a tiny population of 34,000 obtained 3 medals. That means 90 medals per million heads of population. Australia's 46 medals amounts to 1.8 medals per million heads of population. This 'rate of medals' number, puts Australia behind 13 other countries. Most of these countries are very small, and therefore any medal at all may greatly favour their 'rate'. However, the Netherlands, which has a population 2/3 the size of Australia, was also higher, with an impressive total medal count of 36. Sure, none of this really matters. Its the participation that counts. Right?