Covid-19 vaccination hypothetical progress for Australia

 

If Australia was like ...



Australia came late to Covid-19 vaccination, having successfully isolated since early 2020 from the severe contagion (and deaths) seen in many countries. Up to mid-year 2021, there have been less than 1,000 reported deaths. However, the isolation policy pursued by the Federal government will not be viable or optimal in coming months. The rest of the vaccinated world is opening up, while Australia continues to restrict the entry of foreigners, including tourists, students, and also returning Australians. 

An accelerated vaccine drive is now under way, using the Pfizer and Astra Zeneca vaccines. Around 15 percent of the population is now fully vaccinated (1 August), but the level of full vaccination must reach at least 60 percent or higher, before many restrictions will be eased. So when will the country reach that level? The Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, has his own idea on this. 

The chart above gives some indication of the possibilities. A comparison is made with Germany, Chile, Israel, UK and USA. Each of these countries reached 15 percent vaccination at different times, Israel for example, in January 2021. So what if Australia followed the exact same rate as each of these countries? If Australia followed the Israeli example then vaccination would be extremely rapid, approaching 60 percent in October/November. Israel tapered its vaccination drive, as deaths from the Covid-19 virus dropped sharply as vaccination rose. The USA had a slightly slower drive. If we followed their example, then we would not reach 60 percent by end 2021. In the USA, there is a reported anti-vaxxer resistance to vaccination and a high level of non-compliance with mask guidance too. The best example may be Chile. This country now exceeds 60 percent vaccination, having moved rapidly to vaccinate the population. If moving at the same pace, then Australia would achieve an important milestone between November and December this year. 

From a late start, Australia has an important race to run, with a recent Covid outbreak in NSW and several other states, proving difficult to suppress.

What do you reckon???

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